Bitcoin (BTC) has been largely directionless since the start of the year as bulls bought on dips while bears sold off rallies. This suggests that the price is consolidating within a wide range with both the bulls and bears waiting for the next trigger to establish their supremacy.
Short-term volatility may increase after the United States Federal Reserve announced its policy decision on March 16, but unless the Fed is in for a surprise, the chances of a new trend are likely slim. Bitcoin could spend a little more time in a rock formation before breaking out.
A positive sign in range this year is evidence of accumulation by both the small investors and select whales. This coincided with an ongoing decline in Bitcoin balances on exchanges. The combined Bitcoin balances on the 21 exchanges it covers have fallen to 2.32 million Bitcoin, according to CryptoQuant, the lowest since August 2018.
Could Bitcoin break above the immediate resistance level and pull the altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin has bounced off immediate support at $37,000, indicating that bulls are trying to defend this level. The buyers will now try to push the price above the moving averages. If they succeed, that indicates strong demand at lower levels.
The bulls will then attempt to extend the up move by clearing the overhead hurdle at $42,594. If they manage to do that, that will be the first indication that the bears may lose their grip. The BTC/USDT pair could then rise towards the overhead zone between $45,400 and the rising channel resistance line.
Conversely, if the price falls relative to the moving averages, it suggests that bears do not want to give up their advantage. The sellers will then try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the channel’s support line. Such a move could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
The bulls try to defend the support line of the symmetrical triangle. A strong bounce from the current level could push Ether (ETH) towards the moving averages, where the bears are likely to mount another strong defense.
If the price falls against the moving averages, it suggests that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on relief rallies. That increases the chance of a break below the triangle. The ETH/USDT pair could then resume its downtrend and drop as low as USD 2,159.
Contrary to this assumption, if bulls push the price above the moving averages, it suggests that selling pressure may be easing. The pair could then rise to the psychological level of $3,000 and later challenge the triangle’s resistance line.
BNB is trying to break out of the support zone between $360 and $350. This suggests that buyers continue to pile on dips near the support zone.
The buyers will have to push and hold the price above the moving averages to signal that the bears may lose their grip. If the price remains above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($389), the bulls will try to push the BNB/USDT pair towards $425.
This positive image will be invalidated if the price falls again against the moving averages and falls below $350. Such a move will indicate that sentiment remains negative and traders continue to sell on rallies. That could pull the price towards the critical support of $320.
Ripple (XRP) price rose above the downward trendline on March 11, but the rally encountered solid resistance at $0.85. This suggests that the bears have not yet given up and continue to sell on rallies.
The price has moved back towards the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($0.75), which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price bounces back from current levels, buyers will make another attempt to push and hold the XRP/USDT pair above $0.85. If they succeed, the pair could climb as low as $0.91 and then climb towards the $1 psychological resistance.
This positive image becomes invalid if the price moves below the moving averages. Such a move suggests that the break above the downward trendline may have been a bulltrap. A break and close below $0.69 could open the doors for a possible drop to $0.62.
Terra’s LUNA token dropped below $94 on March 11, but the bears were unable to pull the price towards the 20-day EMA ($82). This is a positive sign as it shows traders buying with every little dip.
While the rising 20-day EMA points to an advantage for buyers, the negative divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that bullish momentum could be weakening.
The bulls are trying to push the price back above USD 94. If that happens, the buyers will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $105 and resume the uptrend. If they do, the LUNA/USDT pair could rise towards USD 115.
Conversely, if the price falls from the overhead zone, the bears will try to push the pair below the 20-day EMA.
Solana (SOL) broke and closed below the strong support at $81 on March 11 and followed it up with further selling on March 13. However, the bears failed to break the intraday low of $75 on Feb. 24.
The positive divergence on the RSI indicates that selling pressure may ease. The bulls are trying to push the price back above the breakout level at $81 on March 14. If they keep the price above USD 81, it suggests that the recent collapse may have been a bear trap. Buyers will then aim to push the SOL/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($87).
This positive opinion will become invalid if the price drops from the current level and moves below USD 75. That suggests that the bears have converted the $81 level into resistance. The pair could then drop to $66.
Cardano (ADA) is trying to rebound from the strong $0.74 support but lacks conviction. One small positive is that the RSI is showing the first signs of positive divergence, indicating that selling pressure may be easing.
The bulls will need to push and hold the ADA/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.85) to signal that the bears may be losing traction. That could open the doors to a possible retest of the disturbance level at $1. This level is likely to attract strong sales.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it indicates that bears are hitting on any small rally. That increases the likelihood of a break below USD 0.74. If that happens, the downtrend could reach $0.68.
Related: Bitcoin Tracks $39K Ahead of European Vote on Proof-of-Work Legality
Avalanche (AVAX) broke below the uptrend line on March 13, indicating that the bears have overpowered the bulls. Buyers’ attempts to push the price above the breakdown level on March 14 met strong bear sales.
If the bears sink and the price holds below USD 64, the AVAX/USDT pair may slide towards the strong USD 51 support. The declining 20-day EMA ($74) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate an advantage for sellers.
This bearish picture will be invalidated in the near term if the price surges from the current level and breaks above the moving averages. The bulls will then try to overcome the barrier at the downward trendline of the descending channel.
This is an important level to watch as the bulls have faltered on the downtrend line four times before. If bulls push and hold the price above the channel, the pair could rise as high as $100.
Polkadot (DOT) again rejected the 50-day SMA ($18) on March 13, but the bulls won’t let the price fall below the 20-day EMA ($17).
The price has been locked in a tight range between $16 and $19 for the past few days, indicating indecision on the part of the bulls and bears. Such tight trading is usually followed by a sharp trend move.
If buyers push and hold the price above $19, the DOT/USDT pair could rise towards the next $23 overhead resistance. A break and close above this level indicates that the downtrend may be over.
Alternatively, if the price falls and moves below USD 16, the pair may retest the critical support at USD 14.
Dogecoin (DOGE) made a strong attempt to start a relief rally on March 14, but the bulls’ efforts met stiff resistance during the 20-day EMA ($0.12).
If the bulls fail to get over the hurdle, the bears will take their chances and try to bring the pair below the psychological support at $0.10. If that happens, the sale could increase further and the DOGE/USDT pair could drop towards $0.06.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level or bounces back from $0.10, it suggests accumulation by the bulls. The buyers will have to push and hold the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.13) to signal a possible trend change.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by: HitBTC stock exchange.