Bitcoin Threatens $38K as Three-Day Chart Hints of Recurrence of Covid Crash in March 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to test $38,000 overnight as the weekend kicked off with uncertainty among traders.

BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (bit stamp). Source: TradingView


3-day chart can be “precursor” for weekly

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD has been circling around $39,000 after several attempts to break the $38,000 support.

The pair had also seen a brief spurt of over $40,000 on Friday thanks to geopolitical developments, but this nevertheless took a matter of minutes for the previous status quo to return.

Such “fake-outs” to higher levels — which ended when Bitcoin came full circle and liquidated both short and long positions — was already familiar behavior to market participants this month.

Now, however, lower time frames have begun to show signs that there could be a more significant downtrend on the horizon.

“3-day BTC candles flirt with the 200 MA for the first time since the Covid crash,” analysis source Material Indicators warned Twitter followers on the day.

“If this is a harbinger of what the Weekly candle is going to do, make sure you have enough powder to take advantage of the buying opportunity that follows. That leap could change your life.”

The 200-week moving average, currently just above $20,000 and still rising, has acted as a historic bottom zone throughout Bitcoin’s lifetime and has never been breached.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (bit stamp) with 200MA. Source: TradingView

Meeting this would require a 50% drop from the current spot price and 70% from all-time highs – something BTC/USD has nevertheless achieved in the past.

For example, the Covid crash saw a 60% drop in a few days before an equally strong reversal later in the year sparked a new price paradigm.

Bitcoin remained at the mercy of the stock markets throughout the week, meanwhile, these fell to a maximum of 2.9% and 3.5% weekly losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.

Earlier, popular trader Pentoshi had clearly stated that he believed a Wall Street Crash-like event could take over the markets this year.

Big and small BTC bets keep pouring in

On the upside, whale buy-ins and the growth of smaller investor portfolios have been reasons to be excited for long-term hodlers.

Related: Bitcoin Derivatives Statistics Reflect Traders Neutral Sentiment, But Anything Can Happen

As Cointelegraph reported, 30,000 BTC exited Coinbase Friday, as foreign exchange reserves mimicked the declines seen in July and September last year — immediately before Bitcoin experienced significant price increases.

“10-100 BTC wallets are piling up like crazy, their offerings are becoming parabolic,” said Lex Moskovski, CEO of Moskovski Capital, added about wallets, citing data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

“These guys have sold the meat of the $10k-50k Bitcoin movement correctly.”

An accompanying chart showed that the share of BTC supply now held by entities — one or more wallets believed to have the same owner — was now its highest in a year.

Bitcoin supply share held by entities with a balance of 10-100 BTC annotated chart. Source: Lex Moskovsky/Twitter