Bitcoin has remained largely untouched by the aggressive stance of the US Federal Reserve and the crisis in Ukraine
Over the past two months, as global asset markets were thrashed by an increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Bitcoin stubbornly remained within range.
Only the shortest dive below $33,000; never above $46,000. As the sideways trade continued, Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine — and the sweeping financial sanctions imposed on Russia in retaliation — added fuel to a long-running debate over crypto: Is it the ultimate refuge from the government’s increasing reach? Just another risk-on asset class? Or a handy sanction evasion tool that is crying out for stricter surveillance?
For technical analysts, the discussion is more prosaic in nature; namely identifying the numerical levels and trading patterns that could signal an ongoing trend reversal – something that could push Bitcoin out of reach and usher in a strong recovery or another bear market.
Below are five analysts’ views on the key levels to watch, both on the positive and downside.
The bull business
Katie Stockton, the founder of Fairlead Strategies, uses trading patterns she calls the “daily cloud” and the “weekly cloud,” trend-following indicators that help identify technical support and resistance levels. Bitcoin will meet its next resistance in the $50,000 to $51,000 range, she said by email on Thursday. Her “secondary breakout” level: Nearly $55,000.
According to Ron William, founder of RW Market Advisory, Bitcoin’s main tactical breakout zone remains between $44,550 and $46,000. He cites so-called accumulation patterns, which have recently been bolstered by safe-haven flows caused by escalating geopolitical tensions.
If Bitcoin makes a sustained break above the key $45,000 resistance, it will open the door to $54,000, said Christopher Grafton, director of Vectisma Limited.
The bear case
Jonathan Cheesman, head of over-the-counter and institutional selling at crypto exchange FTX, points to the 50-day moving average and recent lows around $33,000 and $34,500 as levels to watch – with $29,000. “the big downward level is,” he said in an email on Tuesday.
A much more bearish support would be $20,000, according to William of RW Advisory. He says it’s both a psychologically important level and a target in a long-term regression analysis. Bitcoin hasn’t traded this low since December 2020.
Andy Dodd, a technical analyst at Louis Capital Markets, sees Bitcoin moving lower from the neckline of what he calls a “head-and-shoulder top pattern” — yielding a target of $16,100, he said by email on Thursday. That’s 77 percent below the level at which Bitcoin peaked in November.